Блок 3 в 1

On February 25, 2021, a working meeting was held to discuss the second nationally determined contribution of the Republic of Belarus in the framework of the EU for Climate project. The meeting took place in a hybrid format: online - for participants, in the conference room - for speakers. The meeting was attended by: • representatives of the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus (hereinafter - the Ministry of Natural Resources): First Deputy of the Ministry of Natural Resources Boleslav Pirshtuk - national coordinator of the EU for Climate Project;  Head of the Department for Regulation of Effects on the Air, Climate Change and Expertise of the Ministry of Natural Resources Natalia Inchina ;   • employees of the Delegation of the European Union (hereinafter - the EU) in Belarus; • representatives of the United Nations Development Program (hereinafter - UNDP) ROS: E vgen Groza - Head of the regional project "EU for Climate"; • UNDP representatives in Belarus: Alexandra Solovyova ; • National experts on the Nationally Determined Contribution (hereinafter - NOV): I. Tochitskaya, V. Rak, E. Bertosh, I. Filyutich, A. Shatravko,  Y. Popruzhenko; • international consultants: E. Kempel - international consultant on NOV, UNDP ROS; A. Sankovsky - International Consultant on NOV, UNDP/UNEP GSP;  • representatives of republican government bodies, organizations; • project partners. From Belhydromet, as listeners, the following took part: the head and engineer-meteorologist of the 2nd category of the department for the study of climate change Natalia Klevets and Ekaterina Artimenya. The meeting participants were assigned the following tasks: 1. Consider the national implementation of the norms of the Paris Agreement (hereinafter - PS); 2. To get acquainted with the work carried out to determine the Second NOV of the Republic of Belarus to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (hereinafter - GHG) until 2030; 3. To get acquainted with international experience in the preparation of NOV; 4. Determine the recommended indicator for the next NOV of the Republic of Belarus. Climate change has become one of the most important challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. Currently, UNDP is implementing a regional project "EU for Climate", which aims to support the governments of six eastern EU partner countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine - in the fight against climate change, assistance in the implementation of the Paris Agreement by climate; improving climate policy and legislation. The EU for Climate Project is funded by the EU and implemented by UNDP in the participating countries. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environmental Protection of the Republic of Belarus is the national partner of the project in Belarus. Updating the Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement is one of the strategic directions of the project. During the implementation of the project, work was carried out to determine the Second Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce greenhouse gases in accordance with the international obligations of the Republic of Belarus to implement the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. At the working meeting, representatives of the EU, UNDP, the Ministry of Natural Resources, ministries and subordinate organizations, public associations, non-governmental organizations, the scientific community, international and national experts on NOV considered the results of the work carried out to determine the second NOV of the Republic of Belarus until 2030, and also discussed technical and economic planning perspectives embedded in each of the CO2 reduction scenarios. The experts shared the results of the compilation of forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as a comparative analysis of the ambition of the proposed NOV with other countries. In the near future, after the working meeting, it is planned to collegially agree on the second Nationally Determined Contribution, which will subsequently be submitted to the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The undp.org website provides information on the workshop described above.

The average air temperature was within -4.1°C, which is 0.3°C higher than the climatic norm. The temperature regime was heterogeneous throughout the month. The first and third decades were very warm, with an average air temperature of 3.8°С and 4.0°C above normal. The second decade was very cold with the air temperature 7.0°C below normal. During the month, on average, 73.2 mm of precipitation fell in Belarus, which is 183% of the climatic norm. Throughout the country in January, 1.5-2 rainfall rates fell. Precipitation fell in the form of rain, snow and sleet. The height of the snow cover on the last day of the month ranged from 5 cm to 44 cm. In early January, weather conditions facilitated the opening and clearing of rivers from ice formations, freeze-up and freeze-up with openings were observed only on the Western Dvina near the city of Surazh and the village of Ulla, the Dnieper near the town of Rechitsa, their individual tributaries and some tributaries of the Sozh. On the reservoirs Vileyskoye, Chigirinskoye, Zaslavskoye, Soligorskoye, Krasnaya Sloboda, lakes Drivyaty and Chervoneye, freeze-up with openings was observed. In the second decade, due to a drop in air temperature, ice formation processes resumed on the country's water bodies. Frosty weather contributed to the establishment of freeze-up and an increase in ice thickness on the country's water bodies. Freeze-up with a thickness of 5-21 cm was established on the rivers of the basins of the Western Dvina, Dnieper, Berezina, Sozh, Pripyat, most of the rivers of the basins of the Neman and Viliya; in some places, polynyas were observed in the ice cover. On the reservoirs Vileyskoye, Chigirinskoye, Zaslavskoye, Soligorskoye, Krasnaya Sloboda, lakes Lukomskoye, Drivyaty, Naroch and Chervoneye, a continuous ice cover with a thickness of 14-24 cm was noted. In the third decade, the unstable nature of the weather and precipitation in the form of rain and sleet contributed to the melting of ice on the country's water bodies, spaces with an open water surface increased in the ice cover, and water appeared on the ice. Separate tributaries of the Neman, Dnieper and Berezina were cleared of ice formations. In January, the rise in water levels prevailed on the country's rivers. In some sections of the rivers, during the period of ice formation, there were sharp (up to 46 cm) daily fluctuations in water levels caused by ice jam. The water levels exceeded the marks of the water outlet on the floodplain on the Neman near the village of Belitsa, Viliya near the village of Steshitsy, the Dnieper near the town of Loev, the Berezina near the town of Berezino and the town of Svetlogorsk, its tributary to the river Svisloch near the village of Terebuty, Sozhe near the town. Slavgorod and the Pripyat tributary to the Ptich river near the village of 1st Slobodka. In January, the water content of the rivers Zapadnaya Dvina, Dnieper, Berezina near the towns of Borisov and Sozh in the Krichev - Slavgorod section was 40-50% higher than the norm. The water content of the Neman, Viliya, Western Bug, Pripyat, Berezina near the city of Bobruisk and Sozh near the city of Gomel was close to the usual for this time of year and somewhat less than it.

February is the last winter month and is close to January in its temperature regime. The average monthly air temperature in February (climatic norm) in Belarus is -4,3°С, varying from -1,9°С in the South-West to -6,2°С in the Northeast, and in comparison with January it rises by 0,2°C. In some years, it can sharply differ from the average long-term values. Thus, the average monthly air temperature in February 1947, 1954, 1985, 1986 was 8-11°C below the climatic norm. During the post-war period, the coldest (with an average monthly air temperature in the republic of -14,9°C, which is 10,6°C lower than the average long-term values) was February 1956. February 1929 is considered extremely cold for the entire period of meteorological observations (the average monthly temperature is -17.1°C, which is 12.8°C lower than the climatic norm). Warm weather (5-6°C above the climatic norm) was noted in February 1989, 1995, 2002, 2016 and 2020. The warmest for the entire more than a century period of meteorological observations was February 1990 with an average monthly air temperature of + 2.6 ° С, which is almost 6.9 ° С warmer than usual. Night temperatures in February are -5 -9°С, but during cold invasions from the Arctic they can drop to -25°С and below. The absolute minimum (-40.7°С) was noted at the Dokshitsy meteorological station on the night of February 1, 1956. During the day, the air temperature is usually -3, +1°С. The absolute maximum (+17.2°С) was recorded at the Brest meteorological station in the afternoon of February 21, 1990. During the month, usually 10-17 days with a thaw are observed. The duration of sunshine per month is 59-70 hours. During February, the snow cover increases, and by the end of the month, as a rule, the average height of the snow cover reaches 12-26 cm, in the southern regions of the republic - 7-14 cm. On average, 12-18 days with precipitation are noted per month. their number is 27-45 mm (climatic norm). With a cyclonic nature of the weather, the monthly amount of precipitation increases to 56-130 mm, exceeding the norm by 2-3 times. In some years, when anticyclonic processes prevail, the monthly amount of precipitation decreases to 1-11 mm. On average, in February, there are 1-4 days with icy phenomena, 2-6 days with frost, 3-8 days with a blizzard and 2-11 days with fogs. The average monthly air temperature is expected to be 1°C below the climatic norm, in some places around it (norm -2 -6°C). Monthly precipitation is forecasted within the long-term average values (climatic norm 27-45 mm).

 

In November 2020, the average air temperature in Belarus was +3.8°C, which is 2.9°C higher than the climatic norm. The above zero air temperature anomaly spread everywhere, all three decades of the month were warm. In November, the country received an average of 35.9 mm of precipitation (78% of the climatic norm). During the month, precipitation fell unevenly. In the first and second decades, there was a shortage of precipitation, in the third it fell slightly above the norm. In the first decade of November, precipitation fell mainly in the form of rain. In the second and third decades of the month, snowfall and sleet were recorded; in some areas, snow cover was established for a short time. On the last day of the month, its height in most of the territory was from 0.5 to 16 cm. In the first two decades of November, fluctuations in water levels were observed on the rivers; in the third decade of the month, an increase in water levels was observed on most rivers of the country, due to precipitation. By the end of the month on the Neman near Grodno, Dnieper near Mogilev, Zhlobin and Loev, Berezina near Bobruisk and Sozhe near Gomel, the water levels were below the marks limiting navigation. The water content of the Neman and Pripyat was 40-50% less than the norm, and the water content of the Western Dvina, Viliya, Western Bug, Dnieper, Berezina and Sozh was close to the usual for this time of year and somewhat less than it. The average water temperature in the rivers in November was 4.1-8.3°C, which is 2-4°C higher than usual for this time of year.

In December, the air temperature drops rapidly from the first decade to the third decade. In 26% of years, the coldest is the first decade, in 33% of years is the second decade, in 41% of years is the third decade. December is the first month of winter. However, atmospheric processes, especially in the first half of the month, they still retain the features of the transitional season. Therefore, unstable weather with significant fluctuations in air temperature is often observed in December. Quite often, the first five days and even the first ten days of the month are very warm. During December, 13-20 days are usually marked with a thaw. Cold spells are most likely in the second half of December. The monthly average air temperature in December (climatic norm) ranges from 1.3°C in the South-West to -4.7°C in the North-East of Belarus and, compared to November temperature, decreases by 4°C. In some years, it can significantly differ from the long-term average values. So, December 1960, 1971, 1974, 1982, 2000, 2004, 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 were warmer than usual by 3-5°С. The warmest was December 2006 with an average air temperature in the Republic was +2.6°C, which is 5.9°C higher than the climatic norm. Cold weather (below the climatic norm by 3-6 ° С) was noted in December 1959, 1963, 1969, 1995, 1996, 2001, 2002, 2010. December 1978 was very cold (6.7°C below the climatic norm), when the average air temperature in the Republic was -10°C. In December, the average night air temperature is within from -4°С to -7°С, daytime from - 2°С to +1°С. The absolute minimum (-38.6°С) was recorded at the Ezerische meteorological station in 1978, the absolute maximum air temperature in December (+14.5°С) was recorded in Brest in 1961. The duration of sunshine per month is 24-33 hours. On average, 35-58 mm of precipitation falls per month (climatic norm). The minimum monthly amount of precipitation is 2-17 mm, the maximum is 71-143 mm  (2-3 monthly norms). In some cases, 16-41 mm of precipitation may fall per day. The timing of the formation of stable snow cover, depending on the nature of the weather, varies greatly from year to year. Snow cover in most of the territory of Belarus is usually established in the first - second decades of December, in the extreme southern regions - in the third decade. Its height by the end of the month reaches an average of 4-10 cm. If warm weather prevails in December, then snow falls only in January. December usually has 3 to 15 days with fog and ice, from 2 to 5 days with a blizzard and from 18 to 21 days with precipitation. The average monthly air temperature is expected to be 1°C higher than the climatic norm (norm -1 -5°C). The monthly amount of precipitation is assumed to be near the climatic norm, in some places less than it (norm 35-58 mm).  

The average air temperature in Belarus in October 2020 was + 10.5°C, which is 3.8°C higher than the climatic norm. October of the current year was the warmest since 1945. Prior to that, the warmest was October 1967 with an average air temperature of + 9.7°C. The above zero temperature anomaly spread throughout the country. The average air temperature in all three decades was above normal. The warmest were the first and third decades with the positive anomaly of the ten-day temperature equal to 5.4°С and 4.6°С, respectively. The second decade was 1.4°C warmer than usual. In October, the national average was 57.1 mm of precipitation (114% of the climatic norm). Precipitation fell unevenly across the country. The most humid was the Mogilev region, where 80.4 mm or 146% of the norm fell per month. The least precipitation fell on the territory of Grodno region - 41.9 mm or 89% of the climatic norm. In the first ten days of October, a decrease in water levels was noted on the rivers, in the second and third decades of the month, an increase in water levels due to precipitation prevailed on the rivers, as a result of which on the on the Dnieper near Zhlobin and Rechitsa on the Berezina near Svetlogorsk, on the Sozh near Krichev, Slavgorod and Gomel improved conditions for river transport. The water content of most rivers was close to the usual for this time of year and somewhat less than it, only the water content of the Western Bug, Pripyat and Sozh in its lower reaches is significantly less than the norm by 40-60%. The average water temperature in the rivers in October was 10-13°C, which is 2-4°C higher than usual for this time of year.  

In October, the air temperature drops rapidly from the first decade to the third. In 59% of years, the warmest is the first decade, about once at 3 years old, the second decade is the warmest, and at 8% of years - the third decade. Frequent invasions of cold air masses in November in combination with a negative radiation balance of the earth's surface create conditions for the formation of a winter weather regime. The air temperature is increasingly becoming negative. The transition of the average daily temperature through 0 ° С towards a decrease is considered the beginning of winter. On average, it begins in the Northern and North-Eastern regions of the Republic in the second decade and ends in the South-West at the end of the third decade, and in Brest this transition is carried out on December 3. Average monthly air temperature (climate norm) in November ranges from -0.6°C in the North-East to +2.7°C in the South-West and West of the Republic and decreases by 5.4-6.3°C compared to October. In some years, it may deviate from the climate norm. Thus, November 1978, 1996, 2000, 2010, 2013, 2019 was warmer than usual by 3-4°С, the warmest November was in 1996, when the average monthly air temperature was + 4.9°С. Colder by 3-4°C was November 1946, 1956, 1965, and 1988. Very cold (at 6-7°C below normal) was in November 1993 and 1998. The air temperature during the day is usually ranges from + 1.9°C to +5.4°C, at night is from -2.9°C to +0.4°C, in half of the years it falls below -8 -13°C. The absolute maximum temperature (+24.1°C) was noted in Mozyr on November 1, 1926, and the absolute minimum temperature (-27.4°C) was recorded in Yezerishche on November 30, 1992. Precipitation in November is more often in the form of snow. The earliest date of snow cover formation is the end of October, and in the South and West of Belarus – the first half of November. A stable snow cover is usually formed only in December. The average precipitation in November is between 40 mm and 55 mm (climate norm). If the weather is cyclonic, it can increase to 87-165 mm (2-3 climate norms). The minimum amount of precipitation in November does not exceed 0-16 mm. Average number of days with precipitation is 15-20, with fogs is 6-17. For a month, there may be 2-5 days with ice and frost deposits.

  Overview of the water regime of rivers in September In the first decade of September, on most rivers of Belarus, there was an increase in water levels due to precipitation, as a result of which conditions for river transport on the Western Dvina near Vitebsk were improved. In the second and third decades of September, a decline in water levels prevailed on the rivers. In September, the water content of the Western Dvina was slightly higher than usual for this time of year, the water content of the Berezina, the Dnieper, the Sozh and the Neman near Stolbtsy was close to the norm, and the water content of the Viliya, the Zapadny Bug, the Pripyat and the Neman in the Belitsa – Grodno section was two times less than the norm. In some parts of the Neman, the Viliya and some tributaries of the Pripyat, the values of the minimum water levels were close to multiyear minimums for this month. At present, there is a decrease in water levels with a daily intensity of 1-14 cm on the rivers of Belarus. Unfavorable conditions for the operation of river transport are observed on the Neman near Grodno, on the Dnieper near Mogilev, Zhlobin, Rechitsa and Loev, on the Berezina near Bobruisk and Svetlogorsk, on the Sozh near Krichev, Slavgorod and Gomel. Forecast information on minimum water levels in October In October, the minimum water levels in rivers are predicted to be below the long-term average values. On the Neman, the Berezina, the Pripyat and in the lower reaches of the Sozh, the minimum water levels are expected to be close to the lowest values for the entire observation period, and on the Neman near Grodno, the water level will drop below the multiyear minimum.

In August 2020, the average air temperature in Belarus was +18.6°C, which is 1.3°C higher than the climatic norm. All three decades were warm. It was warmer in the first and third decade, the average air temperature of which was higher than the norm by 1.6 and 1.8ºС, respectively. On average, there was a lack of precipitation throughout the country: 58.6 mm fell or 87% of the monthly norm. Some meteorological stations recorded 1.5-2 monthly precipitation norms. During the month, the precipitation was extremely uneven. In the first and second decade of August, there was a strong deficit of precipitation: 19% and 42% of the norm fell, respectively. In the third decade, there was an excess of moisture: 208% of the ten-day norm dropped out. In the first two decades of August, the rivers showed mainly a decline in water levels and their even course. As a result, on the Western Dvina near Vitebsk, the Dnieper near Mogilev, Zhlobin, Rechitsa and Loyev, the Berezina near Svetlogorsk, the Sozh near Krichev, Slavgorod and Gomel conditions for river transport have become worse. On the Sozh tributary, the Oster near Khodun, the water level dropped below the mark of the water outlet to the floodplain. In the third decade, most rivers showed an increase in water levels due to precipitation. The minimum water levels in certain sections of the rivers of the Neman, the Viliya and the Pripyat basins approached the multiyear minimums for August, and on the Yaselda near the Bereza (a tributary of the Pripyat) the value of the minimum water level dropped below the historical minimum for this time of year. In August, the water content of the Berezina was 15-20% less than the norm, the Western Dvina, the Neman, the Viliya, the Western Bug and the Pripyat were half the usual for this time of year. The water content of the Sozh, the Dnieper near Orsha and Rechitsa was higher than the norm by 10-35% and the Dnieper in Mogilev-Zhlobin section by 55-65%. The average monthly water temperature in the rivers and reservoirs of the country was +16 +23°С, which was close and somewhat lower than usual for this time of year.